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Traders Price in Over 60% Chance of ECB Rate Hike by May, Increase 2026 Hike Expectations
Market traders now anticipate more than a 60% probability of a European Central Bank interest rate hike by May, with roughly 70 basis points of hikes priced in for 2026, up from about 50 basis points earlier this week. This shift reflects growing expectations of tighter monetary policy from the ECB.
Date:
19.03.2026 |
Source:
FOR-EX.NEWS
Quotes
| Instrument | Price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.158350 | +1.1518% |
| GBPUSD | 1.343230 | +1.32691% |
| USDJPY | 157.676000 | -1.27541% |
| XAUUSD | 4645.770000 | -3.58302% |
| USDCAD | 1.372770 | -0.018936% |
| NZDUSD | 0.587430 | +1.27293% |
| USDCHF | 0.788250 | -0.4584% |
| AUDUSD | 0.708630 | +0.73318% |
| EURGBP | 0.862320 | -0.16671% |
| EURJPY | 182.652000 | -0.25121% |
| GBPJPY | 211.786000 | -0.093403% |
| AUDJPY | 111.729000 | -0.50137% |
| CADJPY | 114.875000 | -1.29403% |
| CHFJPY | 200.025000 | -0.77436% |
| NZDJPY | 92.617000 | +0.017278% |
| GBPCHF | 1.058870 | +0.75552% |
| EURCHF | 0.913040 | +0.50747% |
| USDMXN | 17.745950 | -0.44308% |
| USDZAR | 16.766880 | -1.04416% |
| USDTRY | 44.266220 | -0.054955% |
| USDRUB | 86.155600 | +2.71366% |
| USDSEK | 9.284360 | -1.20541% |
| USDCNY | 6.899300 | +0.3958% |
Upcoming Important Events
| Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.03.2026 | ||||
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jan) | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales MoM (Feb) | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales MoM (Jan) | 1.5 | -0.4 |
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales YoY (Jan) | 1 | 0 |
| 21.03.2026 | ||||
| 17:30 | 🇺🇸 | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||
| 23.03.2026 | ||||
| 23:30 | 🇯🇵 | Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 24.03.2026 | ||||
| 08:30 | 🇩🇪 | Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 50.7 | 50.9 |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 51.1 | 51.7 |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Mar) | 51.1 | 51.7 |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 | S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) | 51.8 | 53.9 |