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Traders Increase Probability of ECB Rate Hike by April, Price in Larger 2026 Hikes
Market participants now see over a 60% chance of an ECB interest rate hike by April rather than May, with roughly 70 basis points of hikes priced in for 2026, up from around 50 basis points earlier this week. This shift indicates growing expectations for tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank.
Date:
19.03.2026 |
Source:
FOR-EX.NEWS
Quotes
| Instrument | Price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.158680 | +1.18062% |
| GBPUSD | 1.343650 | +1.35859% |
| USDJPY | 157.598000 | -1.32425% |
| XAUUSD | 4646.875000 | -3.56009% |
| USDCAD | 1.372560 | -0.034231% |
| NZDUSD | 0.587600 | +1.30224% |
| USDCHF | 0.787960 | -0.49502% |
| AUDUSD | 0.708760 | +0.75166% |
| EURGBP | 0.862340 | -0.1644% |
| EURJPY | 182.614000 | -0.27196% |
| GBPJPY | 211.751000 | -0.10991% |
| AUDJPY | 111.697000 | -0.52987% |
| CADJPY | 114.833000 | -1.33011% |
| CHFJPY | 199.996000 | -0.78875% |
| NZDJPY | 92.604000 | +0.00324% |
| GBPCHF | 1.058750 | +0.7441% |
| EURCHF | 0.913050 | +0.50857% |
| USDMXN | 17.741250 | -0.46946% |
| USDZAR | 16.764130 | -1.06039% |
| USDTRY | 44.266190 | -0.055023% |
| USDRUB | 86.155600 | +2.71366% |
| USDSEK | 9.282810 | -1.2219% |
| USDCNY | 6.899300 | +0.3958% |
Upcoming Important Events
| Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.03.2026 | ||||
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jan) | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales MoM (Feb) | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales MoM (Jan) | 1.5 | -0.4 |
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 | Retail Sales YoY (Jan) | 1 | 0 |
| 21.03.2026 | ||||
| 17:30 | 🇺🇸 | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||
| 23.03.2026 | ||||
| 23:30 | 🇯🇵 | Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 24.03.2026 | ||||
| 08:30 | 🇩🇪 | Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 50.7 | 50.9 |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 51.1 | 51.7 |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Mar) | 51.1 | 51.7 |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 | S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) | 51.8 | 53.9 |