EUR/USD weekly outlook: US-Iran re-escalation and CPI in focus

The EUR/USD ended the week on the back foot, surrendering its earlier poise during Friday's session. From mid-week until that point, the pair had displayed a rather unexpected degree of composure, even as tensions in the Middle East flared up again.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: forex.com

Strait of Hormuz Remains Open Despite Iran's Closure Declaration Amid US-Iran Tensions

The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz stayed open for shipping despite Iran's declaration of closure amid escalating tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Tehran. Maritime authorities confirmed continued passage, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions in the strategic waterway.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: FOR-EX.NEWS

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI

The Australian dollar enters the week on uncertain footing after its recent recovery began to lose momentum. Australian consumer and business sentiment will be monitored, but the spotlight falls on Tuesday's US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: forex.com

UniCredit Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.15 Still Looks Out of Reach

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is holding close to 1.1415, despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that would normally be expected to support the US Dollar. UniCredit believes the Dollar's muted response reflects a combination of higher global bond yields, resilient equity markets and fading expectations.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: exchangerates.org.uk

Global Markets Edge Lower Amid Mixed Commodity Moves

Major global indices including DAX, Dow, Nasdaq, FTSE, and Hang Seng saw modest declines over the weekend, while commodities showed mixed performance with oil rising sharply by 3.33% and gold and silver slipping. The EUR/USD pair also experienced a slight decrease of 0.11%, reflecting cautious trading ahead of the new week.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: FOR-EX.NEWS

Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Rally Stalls as Oil Fuels Fed Fears

Gold prices slipped as oil-driven inflation fears pushed September Fed hike odds above 50%, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar ahead of CPI.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: fxempire.com

Interest Rate Forecast: BOJ Rate Hike Risk Builds as USDJPY Eyes 175

Rising inflation and bond yields keep another BOJ rate hike in focus, while USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remain bullish above key support levels.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: fxempire.com

Iran Rejects Strait of Hormuz Terms, Prompting US to Reinstate Sanctions and Naval Blockade

Oman has informed the United States that Iran has refused the proposed terms concerning the Strait of Hormuz, leading Washington to promptly reimpose sanctions and resume its naval blockade. This development escalates tensions in a strategically vital maritime corridor.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: FOR-EX.NEWS

Iran's IRGC Navy Fires Warning Shot to Stop Vessel in Strait of Hormuz

Iran's IRGC Navy reported firing a warning shot at a vessel navigating an unapproved route in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, halting its progress. The incident underscores ongoing tensions in a critical global shipping corridor.

Date: 12.07.2026 | Source: FOR-EX.NEWS

USD/CNY Forecast: Why Westpac Sees Sustained Chinese Yuan Gains

The US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate is trading around 6.78 after retreating steadily through 2026, with the Yuan continuing to outperform many major currencies. Westpac expects the Renminbi to strengthen further over the next two years, forecasting USD/CNY will fall to 6.75 by September, 6.70 by year-end and eventually.

Date: 11.07.2026 | Source: exchangerates.org.uk

Quotes

Instrument Price Change (%)
EURUSD 1.141580 -0.15783%
GBPUSD 1.340270 -0.03785%
USDJPY 161.736790 -0.38139%
XAUUSD 4111.444470 -0.29937%
USDCAD 1.415720 -0.068352%
NZDUSD 0.576300 +0.092189%
USDCHF 0.808310 +0.20361%
AUDUSD 0.695510 +0.18778%
EURGBP 0.851750 -0.099861%
EURJPY 184.634710 -0.50294%
GBPJPY 216.771370 -0.32859%
AUDJPY 112.453340 -0.13735%
CADJPY 114.243350 -0.27379%
CHFJPY 200.682320 -0.32109%
NZDJPY 93.211340 -0.20733%
GBPCHF 1.083360 +0.23306%
EURCHF 0.922750 +0.073692%
USDMXN 17.462000 -0.22284%
USDZAR 16.346700 +0.24346%
USDTRY 46.962700 +0.021085%
USDRUB 76.925000 +1.031%
USDSEK 9.673730 +0.18062%
USDCNY 6.766700 -0.36663%

Upcoming Important Events

Time Country Event Forecast Previous
14.07.2026
00:30 🇦🇺 Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jul) 2.5 -2.9
01:30 🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Jun) -12 -14
03:00 Balance of Trade (Jun) 121 105.43
03:00 Exports YoY (Jun) 18.2 19.4
03:00 Imports YoY (Jun) 24 27.4
12:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI MoM (Jun) 0.3 0.2
12:30 🇺🇸 Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jun) 0.3 0.2
12:30 🇺🇸 Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) 2.9 2.9
12:30 🇺🇸 CPI MoM (Jun) -0.1 0.5
12:30 🇺🇸 CPI YoY (Jun) 4.2